Petrarchive – WW3 thread

Some news from today:
>US10Y briefly reaches 5.13%, 17 year high
>White House preparing plan for 90-day diesel exports ban (Politico)
>Countries cancel Iran flights after US threatens to shut down airlines
>Tigray People’s Liberation Front forces launch offensive against Ethiopian government
>Russian military helicopter violates Polish airspace
>American F-16 fighter jet crashes near US air base in Germany

I reckon that, if it does pop off, I'll make it to the 3rd suicide-drone wave at the most.

WW3 is starting and i STILL have to go to my stupid job. unbelievable

Always bet on nothing

Don't care bro I'm getting into rock climbing

All I want is to see the foreign policy/network news blob come to terms that they cannot beat Iran on their terms even with a "competent" president.

>>12943
US, Israel and Saudi Arabia together couldn't even lift the 2023-2025 Bab al-Mandab blockade. There was one incident in 2024 where they tried to send in Israeli spec ops and American mercenaries and they were immediately killed by the Houthis after Russia tipped off Iran.

Barring some 9/11 type mass casualty event that changes public opinion the US currently has very little capacity to project power besides economic sanctions, and even that is not as effective as it used to be at the outset of the Ukraine war. Sanctions work both ways and hurt the status of the dollar as the global reserve currency.

>US intelligence services have shared a report with several European countries pointing to a possible Russian operation using drones against targets in Spain, France or Italy, according to Spanish media.

>The information was first revealed by journalist Xavier Colás — a former Russia correspondent — in the Spanish newspaper El Mundo. It traces the origin of the alert to CIA director John Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow last August, and sets out a very specific attack scenario: drones launched from merchant vessels disguised as ordinary commercial traffic.

www.euronews.com/2026/09/24/what-we-know-about-cia-warning-of-russian-drone-threat-to-southern-europe

>>12946

And this is verboten among the American public. Whatever you do, never ever ever suggest that something is beyond America's capabilities. Even after all of this time media reports on Trump's statement that he has to choose if he wants to "annihilate" Iran as if that is an actual option he has. I get too worked up about because obviously institutional media is not interested in criticizing the limits of American power, it itself relies on the idea that American power is theoretically limitless and therefor so is their access to the truth. But it's quite maddening to see these people pretend to be serious and sober thinkers when they live in a complete fantasy.

>>12954
You can always cheer yourself up by remembering that Gulf Arabs also fell for this meme and ended up being punching bags for Israel.

>>12946
>Barring some 9/11 type mass casualty event that changes public opinion
They have been pre-programming a grid attacks heavily this year. In February some guy was allegedly killed trying to ram his ammunition-filled pickup truck into substation in Nevada and the story was all over Fox for a day or two. Then, earlier this month, Germany allegedly foiled two plots to attack their grid that they're blaming on Russia.

>>12954
I'm worried about any push towards war anywhere because our military is completely incapacitated. I know the right is full of Israeli sycophant sub-80IQ morons, but the "woke" shit that went on from like 2012-2024 has completely and irreversibly destroyed any shot we have at winning a war for the foreseeable future.

Like over a decade of consistent effort and litigation to remove white men from positions of power coupled with the loss in Iraq/Afghanistan has resulted in guys becoming completely disinterested in serving the country. The whole "mental health awareness" crap has tons of young people diagnosed with disqualifying psychological profiles. Our immigration policies now make it so our country is filled with the diaspora of whatever country we fight with, and good luck reinstituting internment camps. Not to mention that all of the recent immigrants and H1B recipients are certainly not going to stay and fight on behalf of the United States.

The country is completely over, America is basically just a PvP zone at this point. I don't even know why posts like this one are made. We won't go to war, there's no country here.

>>12946
>Barring some 9/11 type mass casualty event that changes public opinion
They have been pre-programming a grid attacks heavily this year. In February some guy was allegedly killed trying to ram his ammunition-filled pickup truck into substation in Nevada and the story was all over Fox for a day or two. Then, earlier this month, Germany allegedly foiled two plots to attack their grid that they're blaming on Russia.

>>12954
I'm worried about any push towards war anywhere because our military is completely incapacitated. I know the right is full of Israeli sycophant sub-80IQ morons, but the "woke" shit that went on from like 2012-2024 has completely and irreversibly destroyed any shot we have at winning a war for the foreseeable future.

Like over a decade of consistent effort and litigation to remove white men from positions of power coupled with the loss in Iraq/Afghanistan has resulted in guys becoming completely disinterested in serving the country. The whole "mental health awareness" crap has tons of young people diagnosed with disqualifying psychological profiles. Our immigration policies now make it so our country is filled with the diaspora of whatever country we fight with, and good luck reinstituting internment camps. Not to mention that all of the recent immigrants and H1B recipients are certainly not going to stay and fight on behalf of the United States.

The country is completely over, America is basically just a PvP zone at this point. I don't even know why posts like this one are made. We won't go to war, there's no country here.

>>12959

None of this explains why America runs into the same issues in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. Also your diaspora-fifth-column-shit is totally backwards. Every diaspora group spends 99% of their energy lobbying the American government to bomb their home countries and settle their personal grievances. Just yesterday a monarchist Persian UMich student asked Abdul El-Sayed to denounce "the killing of 50,000 protestors" by the IRGC.

Of course, none of these diasporas would enlist to retake their country. Just hang by while we overthrow the government and install them as the new liberal technocrats.

>BREAKING: Yemen's Houthis announce they struck Saudi Aramco oil facilities at Yanbu and a sensitive site in Riyadh with ballistic and cruise missiles and drones.

>The Yanbu strike comes within hours of Macron announcing France will deploy soldiers, radars and air defence systems to protect that exact facility, and days after the UK promised limited military support to Saudi Arabia.

An Italian aircraft was hit in SA just a few days ago also.

>>12961

Does any nationality at all have diasporaoids who aren't raging neocon reactionaries? I know for LatAm there pretty much are none (even for Mexico)

>Ukraine struck two Russian oil refineries and three facilities involved in missile production overnight on Sept. 25, Ukraine's General Staff confirmed.
>Among the facilities targeted was the Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez oil refinery in Perm, Russia, located approximately 1,450 kilometers (900 miles) from the Ukrainian border.
>The refinery processes around 13 million metric tons of crude oil annually and produces fuel and other petroleum products. According to the General Staff, the facility is involved in supplying Russian forces with fuel and lubricants.

In other news US aircraft carriers have withdrawn from the Gulf of Oman to the Arabian Sea, so it looks like Iran's anti ship missiles are proving effective.

>>12966

Palestinians. Except for the guy in El Salvador.

>>12976
Touché. I guess a better question would be "diasporaoids who aren't wingcucks."

>>12959
If it’s any consolation, since things kicked off in Ukraine in 2022 the powers that be in the West have finally realized that encouraging the endless critique of the West isn’t a sustainable strategy. The “Western civilization is inherently settler colonialist racist fascist blahblahblah” discourse hasn’t been nearly as in your face or as tolerated period since then.

That said a change in the vibe doesn’t help the West as much as changes on the ground will. Until the US reindustrializes to to point of out-producing Iran, Russia and eventually China in drones and the like this is all just cope.

>>12998
>Until the US reindustrializes
This seems so out of reach but I can't really articulate or reason why. Reindustrialization to the point that the US can produce a company that can actually complete with DJI seems to me like a task that would require reshaping society as a whole. In my mind I can't see it happening without issues like wealth inequality, runaway financialization and all other cultural malaise being addressed.

>Pentagon quietly adds dozens to tally of troops wounded amid Iran war
>With the addition of 29 U.S. sailors and eight Marines, the total number of personnel wounded since the start of hostilities has risen to 861, database shows.

>>13001
our elites are by and large MBA retards who think updating excel spreadsheets counts as productive economic activity, so no it'll never happen

>>13004
I know it will never happen, but is it theoretically impossible for the MBA retards and contractor grifters to leave just one crucial sector alone? In effect the arms industry is where such issues are at their worst, because their sole customer is the government. So I guess it's a very top down problem where you can't fix it without fixing your government, which in a democratic state requires widespread cultural shifts. This comment ended up being me thinking out loud.

>>13005
These things change when it becomes apparent that they are existential and cannot carry on as they are. The US was actually taking steps in the right direction with the DOD investing in building rare earth refineries in the US, shell production, etc. Ukraine made it clear the West was behind where it needed to be. The lackluster performance in Iran will also push more pressure on this development.

That said the whole picking fights with our allies under Trump has been a complete fiasco and probably will end up doing more damage to American foreign policy than anything else. The dude make Canada into an American adversary. I mean, really.

>>13005
why would they? you don't think these people give a shit about America's security, do you? they don't even understand the concept. all they see is another industry ripe for rentseeking

>>13006
It will take decades of investment to build up process knowledge, and to make industry a genuine thing again in America. Not to mention how trump has basically repulsed all foreign investment into any potential industry due to the sheer volatility of the tariffs. (Liberation day!)

>>13204
The tariffs were good, although he was foolish to implement them in the manner that he did. Personally I am in favor of embargoes. Something like this:
>Pump funding into American rare earth mines/processing plants
>Once some baseline is established, ban all imports of Chinese rare earths
>American rare earths eventually grow to the point they can supply America’s needs
Rinse and repeat, moving up the chain from minerals and oil to manufactured goods. I think it would have only benefits in the long run: return of process knowledge to the US, return of manufacturing, economic self-sufficency (so less need to be involved in foreign affairs, etc.) Sooner or later we are going to have to do this anyway. Might as well do so on our terms.

>>13025
Meant for >>13024

>>13025
I generally agree that some small tariffs on china, especially if they were coordinated with multiple other countries and partners would have been fantastic. However, Trump used a knife instead of a scalpel, and American Industry suffers for it.

I personally disagree with the banning of Chinese rare earths, competition is essential for capitalism. Without competition, there's no reason to grow. I think that if you had a deal with multiple Chinese factory builders to build factories within America as well as bringing on over Chinese rare earth mineral companies and forcing them to partner with American ones, you would see a better result.

I think a public-private investment structure would work the best in such a hypothetical funding operation, where it is purposely designed to be hard to untangle. That of course runs the risk of funding zombie companies, so the details of such an idea have to be ironed out.

Shit is popping off again.

Some refinery in the UAE blew up supposedly due to an Iranian attack but there has been no reports of launches from Iran nor any announcements, Abqaiq has been targeted too but it's similarly unclear.

>>13086
The silver lining from all of this is all these Gulf Arabs getting their comeuppance. Saudis might have to start working for a living, imagine that.

>Chinese refiners suspend October fuel exports to bolster stocks, sources say
>India's MRPL cancels fuel export tenders after fire at refinery
>US tells France and Germany to release diesel stocks or face US export ban, sources say

Normal economic & geopolitical turbulence and not indicative of WW3 sorry anon

>>13094
Thank you Mr Fukuyama

>>13095
The world became slightly worse when normies started namedropping IR academics (Fukuyama, Mearscheimer) without bothering to learn the theory behind it. Actually I wonder if they know there is an academic discipline behind all this or if they think Francis is a Twitter content creator

>>13096
I thought he was a vtuber

>>13101
Not a bad idea, all things considered

Saudis just staged a false flag in the Kaaba to rally the Islamic world against the Houthis

>13112
The Saudis are going to have to learn to cope with their new reality and it’s going to be glorious. Sorry, you can’t afford to keep a crew of Indian/African/Filipino servants anymore! Sorry, your government wasted too much money on funding Salafism and now it can’t afford to keep giving you treats! Sorry, your wife is going to have to work now! Hahahhaha

>>13166
BASED BASED BASED

East-West pipeline hit again

>BREAKING: Yemen's Houthis appear to have struck Saudi Arabia's East-West crude oil pipeline again, hitting Pumping Station No. 2 east of Riyadh. Sentinel-3 satellite imagery shows a black smoke plume roughly 50 km long over the site today.
>NASA FIRMS recorded four heat anomalies at the station, with fire radiative power up to 88 megawatts and one reading at 367 Kelvin, the ceiling the VIIRS mid-infrared channel can register, meaning the fire is likely hotter than the data shows.
>The pipeline is Saudi Arabia's only export route that does not pass through the Strait of Hormuz. It was shut on September 11 after the first wave of strikes and only partially restarted on September 22.

>>13166
>>13168
You guys feel this way about Saudis and understandably so but do you think people living in the global south do not feel the same way about you, and they're not just as justified? Can you really blame the Saudis if you've not taken a moral stand against your own nations crimes abroad? Obviously I detest the Saudi government but I can't really blame the average Saudi, because I'm not confident that I'd be a more moral person than them had I been born into the same wealth and cushy existence.

>>13171

The Gulf countries built their wealth on modern slavery.

>>13173
What did your country build its wealth on?

>>13174

Mostly manufacturing, technological innovations, and exploiting abundant natural resources.

>>13166
This is fantasy. The global labor market would have to be totally upended and reversed immediately for there to be a mass SEA/Indian exodus from the Arabian peninsula as you seem to imply. I don't think you have any real concern about the human rights and exploitation of these people, it seems like you're just looking for an esoteric angle to attack others. Like the rightoids pinching their noses to feign concern about Palestinians to flex their anti-Semitism. When will you learn that life is more than one-upping and owning others?

>>13176
What a convenient and tidy worldview!

>>13171
>Obviously I detest the Saudi government but I can't really blame the average Saudi
You have it backwards, the average Saudi is far worse than the Saudi government. All the worst aspects of the Saudi government are there specifically to appease the demands of the Saudi people. In the 1970s when the Saudi government tried to modernize the country, it was Saudi people (led by Juhayman) who rebelled. Everything from the patronage of Salafi extremists to the morality police was put in place to appease the people. Even today, what is the number one threat to the Saudi monarchy? Not leftists, not liberals, not feminists. It is religious extremists.

Now, despite all of this I recognize Saudi civilians are still civilians and as such wishing violence upon them is going too far. But I do wish for everything they consider solid to turn to air, for the unreal level of luxury they enjoy from government largesse to wither away, and for them to be made to understand truth. For decades the Saudis have been shielded from the effects of modernity. Strip away that veil and their beloved Salafist society will die. The world will improve immeasurably as a result.

>inb4 “but the West is bad too”
For starters criticizing the West isn’t even controversial anymore, if you ask random Americans half or more will agree with you that American foreign policy is bad for the world. Meanwhile Gulf Arabs are never criticized, leftists will sincerely tell you Qatar is historically progressive because of its support for Palestine. Insofar as these countries are criticized it is for their alliances with the West, not the very real oppression and exploitation they inflict for their own reasons independent of the West. So don’t worry, there’s an ocean of people out there who oppose the West. One person with a bone to pick with the Saudis and Qataris will not drown out your cause.

>>13193
Fair enough. I don't care to argue this issue beyond this point.

The reason I'm annoyed with people pointing fingers is because it just strikes me as much more productive to be critical about your own country first, although this obviously does not generalize to everything.

nothing will ever happen

Aramco kinda got nuked
I'm on vacation rn so I haven't been following shit too closely

>>13345
>Aramco getting blasted
Yeah if the US keeps being on the sidelines here it might mean the end of the petrodollar. Not that I blame the US for staying there. If the houthis closed the Bab-El Mandab now it'd be another layer on top of the shitshow that is Hormuz.

>>13349
This would be a blessing, the only way to save the US is to get rid of the terminal financialization of the economy. Petrodollar and reserve currency status has got to go

>>13345
>Aramco kinda got nuked
If Trump ends up causing the collapse of the Saudi economy (and God willing the Qatari economy too) I will vote for him in 2028

>>13352
Greatest eco-warrior of all time who just stopped oil. How can you not like him?